Iraqi Elections
Likely To Fuel Ethnic Tensions, Further Delay Access To
Kirkuk's
Reserves
The elections in
Iraq
on March 7, 2010, are likely to serve as an important indicator of the
prospects for a resolution of the long-running dispute over the administration
of the ethnically mixed and resource-rich
province
of
Kirkuk in the north of
the country.
The Iraqi Kurds have repeatedly called for
Kirkuk
to be transferred to the control of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG), which already administers three provinces in the
predominantly Kurdish north of
Iraq.
The other ethnic groups in Iraq – including the Arab-dominated government in
Baghdad – are equally insistent that Kirkuk should remain under central control
and that any oil or gas revenues should be divided between the entire
population of the country rather than all going to the KRG.
The failure to resolve the issue of the eventual status of
Kirkuk threatens not only prospects for permanent political stability in Iraq
but also hopes of extracting the province’s huge reserves and building new oil
and gas pipelines from Kirkuk to Turkey, and from there to energy-hungry
Western markets.
“We are very interested in the oil and gas reserves in
Kirkuk.
Who wouldn’t be?” said one executive from a leading European energy company.
“We would like to invest in the region, perhaps even become involved in
building one of the pipelines. But we can’t do anything unless this issue is
resolved. At the moment, the risk of political instability is just too great.”
The Iraqi Kurds have long maintained that, historically,
Kirkuk
is a Kurdish province but that it was subjected to a process of Arabization
under former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who deported a significant
proportion of its indigenous Kurds and replaced them with ethnic Arabs. No one
doubts that such a campaign was launched, although the scale of the
deportations is hotly disputed.
Since the US-led invasion and occupation of
Iraq
in 2003, the KRG has assumed de facto control of education and security in
Kirkuk.
Other ethnic groups have accused the KRG of resettling hundreds of thousands of
ethnic Kurds in the province, including not only those who were originally from
Kirkuk but also a
large number of Kurds from other areas. They claim that the KRG’s ultimate aim
is to change the demographic balance in the province in the run-up to a
constitutionally required – but long overdue – referendum on the status of
Kirkuk.They fear that, if a referendum results in a
vote for union with the KRG, the Iraqi Kurds will attempt to use the revenue
from the province’s oil and gas reserves as the economic foundations for their
long-held dream of an independent Kurdish state.It is a prospect which alarms not only the
Iraqi government in
Baghdad
but also several of the country’s neighbors.
Syria,
Iran and – particularly –
Turkey
all worry that the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern
Iraq
will further fuel secessionist tendencies amongst their own already restive
Kurdish minorities.
The evidence on the ground in
Kirkuk
suggests that there is some truth to the allegations of demographic
manipulation. In September 2009, local officials in
Kirkuk
estimated that the population of the province stood at 1.4 million, up from
850,000 at the time of the
US
invasion in March 2003. More significantly, the voter registry in
Kirkuk
has increased from 400,000 in 2004 to 900,000 for the March 7 elections. A
dispute between Kurds and other ethnic groups over how many seats to allocate
to
Kirkuk to
accommodate this huge increase in voters resulted in the entire election being
put back two months after originally being scheduled for January 2010.
Although a compromise was eventually agreed, the real test
is likely to come after the election itself. As happened at the last Iraqi
general election, the two main Kurdish parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – are running on a joint
ticket, the so-called Kurdistani Alliance, together with five minor parties.
However, this time they will face a challenge from a new party called “Goran”
(meaning “Change”), which is dominated by former members of the PUK who had
become exasperated by the widespread corruption and misuse of resources in the
three provinces under the KRG’s control.
In the July 2009 elections for the KRG, Goran picked up 23.5
percent of the vote. It is also expected to perform well in
Kirkuk
on March 7, 2010.But Goran has already
declared that, however much it may be opposed to the KDP/PUK in other areas, it
is in complete agreement with them on iconic issues such as the transfer or
Kirkuk
to KRG control. As a result, the predominance of ethnic Kurds in
Kirkuk
means that the main hope for those opposed to the transfer of
Kirkuk
to the KRG is that voters break with the pattern of previous elections in Iraq and vote across ethnic lines.If the Kurdish parties fail to win an
overwhelming majority in the province, then it will be much more difficult for
them to push for the inclusion of
Kirkuk in the
territory administered by the KRG and they may be more prepared to reach a
compromise with other ethnic groups on the division of revenue from
Kirkuk’s
oil and gas.But, for the moment at
least, the signs are that the Kurds of Kirkuk will again vote along ethnic
lines – which is likely to encourage the Iraq Kurds to renew their calls for a
referendum and the eventual transfer of both the province and its oil and gas
to the KRG.
Even if the Kurdish parties sweep
Kirkuk,
there is still no indication that any of the other ethnic groups in
Iraq
or the central government in
Baghdad is prepared
to allow the KRG to take over
Kirkuk.
Consequently, the most likely outcome of the March 7 general election in
Kirkuk
appears to be an increase in political tensions; and, as long as the standoff
remains unresolved, energy companies are likely to continue to be reluctant to
make substantial investments in extracting the province’s hydrocarbons and transferring
them to Western markets.
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This article was written by Gareth Jenkins for
OilPrice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Metals, Crude Oil Prices, Alternative Energy and Geopolitics. To find
out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com.
